There is a high risk of entrepreneurship without margin of safety 环箍蛇

There is no safety margin for the risk of entrepreneurship is high. Editor’s note: This article is 36 krypton authorized excerpts reprinted. This paper presents an interesting point of view, that is not "encourage" no bottom line business ", because" there is no margin of safety risk is very high, and often do not, most of the debt business people, the results are not good". The author of this source of personal WeChat young cynic Jiangnan, Jiangnan "the wind blows the public number". Many people feel that a venture will make a lot of people are going to start, then the two worry, the first is not practical to do things, the second is after a failed business will make a lot of people falling into poverty crisis. In fact, on the second, I have seen a lot, how to say, I am not very encouraging the so-called no bottom line business, no margin of safety risk is very high, and often do not, most of the debt business people, the results are not good, not to believe the so-called thousand million this old story to fight to win or die. In fact, anything can be used for example, is that the case is the case, why do we say to Comrade Lei Feng, it means that Lei Feng is too little, almost is the case, the case can not be deduced. The success that you see is just the result of most of the dead. More entrepreneurial success is actually a very high margin of entrepreneurship. The safety margin is very low, will force the entrepreneur to the live, have to do some things against their original intention, but also because there is no FLAC, makes his business timid, in many of the important choice, to do the most conservative strategy, tend to give up a lot of important strategic decision. From this perspective, I still believe Lei said a word, business or to burn up the money, money can make your willful trial and error, less money, you can only go step by step on. In fact, Ma told a thing, he said he was fooled people follow him dry, many of which are reduced by half the wages, so that to entrepreneurial success more easily. Actually, how do I say, I’ve been in touch with some of the most wonderful people, and I feel that it’s not the case. In fact, I feel there is to divide into two groups, the first wave is actually the heart is strong enough, and strong ability of the people, for them, which is very cost-effective, typically reduce wages to Ali business if successful, they will be very good, if not successful, but also nothing more than half a year wasted the time, one of them said to me, up to one year time. Success, not, when is the holiday a year off, not to go looking for a job. To find a good job, or very easy, also makes them in the margin of safety is extremely high, so take a year of loss of time and money to fight a relatively have the future space work, for them is a good thing, not to mention the so-called fundamental to them, in fact, the entrepreneurial cost is not high. I have seen a lot of entrepreneurs, is the case, they give up the so-called superior work to start, not to mention a personal foundation itself are very good, they go into business is not pure.

没有安全边际的创业风险很高   编者按:本文为 36 氪经授权后的摘录转载。文中提出了一个有趣的观点,即 “不鼓励所谓的没有底线创业”,因为 “没有安全边际的创业风险是很高的,而且往往会做的不好,大部分负债创业的人,结果都不好”。本文作者江南愤青,来源其个人微信公众号“风吹江南”。   许多人都觉得全民创业会让很多人都去创业,然后两个担心,第一个是没人踏实做事情,第二个是创业失败后会让很多人陷入贫困危机。   其实关于第二个,我也见过不少,怎么说呢,我个人其实并不是很鼓励所谓的没有底线创业,没有安全边际的创业风险是很高的,而且往往会做的不好,大部分负债创业的人,结果都不好,千万别太去相信所谓的背水一战,破釜沉舟这种老套故事。   其实任何东西能够拿来被举例,本身就是说明这样的案例是个例,为什么我们说要向雷锋同志学习,那恰恰说明雷锋太少了,几乎是个案,个案是不能被推导的。   你看到的成功背后,恰恰反应绝大部分死了的结果。更多的创业成功其实是安全边际很高的创业。安全边际很低,会迫使创业者为了当前活下来,不得不去做一些违背自己初衷的事情,而且因为没有后手,使得他创业缩手缩脚,在很多重大选择上,不得不做最保守的战略,往往会放弃很多重要的战略决策。   从这个角度讲,我还是很相信雷军说的一句话,创业还是要烧不完的钱,钱多可以让你任性的试错,钱少,你就只能步步走对。马云其实讲过一个事情,他说他当年忽悠别人跟着他干,很多都是降低了一半的工资,所以说是破釜沉舟创业更容易成功。其实,怎么说呢,我到是接触过其中一些很不错的人,我到是感觉实情并非如此。   其实这里面我到是感觉分成两拨人,第一波其实是内心足够强大,且能力很强的人,对于他们来说,选出降低工资来阿里创业是典型的非常划算的事情,如果成功,他们会很好,如果不成功,其实也就无非浪费大半年的时间而已,其中一个人还跟我说,最多一年时间呗,成就成了,不成了,当是度假休学一年,大不了在找工作去。   找一份还不错的工作,还是很容易的,也就使得他们其实安全边际极高,所以,拿一年的时间和金钱的损失去搏一个相对具备未来空间的工作,对于他们来说是很划算的事情,根本也谈不上所谓的破釜沉舟,他们的创业成本其实不高的。   我见过很多创业者,都是这种情况,他们放弃所谓优越的工作去创业,压根谈不上是破釜沉舟,本身底子都很优秀,他们去创业也并非是纯粹是为了钱,而是的确感觉不去做点事情,有点对不起这辈子。   马云自己也是如此啊,天生就是爱折腾的人生,你们会觉得马云如果创业失败会日子过的很不好?怎么可能,人家英语口才如此了得,又是商务部的背景出生,创业失败了,也一样可以过很好的生活。安全边际足够高呢。   还有一拨人是什么呢?   还有一波会去创业的人其实是屌丝,一无所有的屌丝,他们的安全边际也足够高,因为没有成本,创业明显比不创业要好的群体,他们也是创业的主力军,从这个社会的构成上来看,大抵创业者都是这两类构成的,而且是相互交叉的。   我们从革命群体都可以看出,农民活不下去了,于是就揭竿而起了,反正已经没有退路了,反倒是能奋起一搏完成逆袭,这个世界绝大部分成功其实都是被逼出来的,这句话其实也没有错。   前几天,我师兄跟我说了一句话,我想起来其实是很对的,他说,世界上的成功 99%是因为欲望,1%是因为理想。我感觉屌丝创业是因为欲望居多没有钱想有钱,高富帅创业很多都是因为理想。至少内心强大的人,更因为是理想,当然回到最后,我还是感觉 1%的理想主义者带着 99%的屌丝的组合还是比较好,聪明的人忽悠不聪明但是有欲望的人跟着往前走的组织特别容易成功。呵呵。   回到现在这个年代,我感觉更是不需要负债创业了,这个年代如果你要创业,都无法获得别人的风险资本的支持,要么就是你人品真不太好,没人愿意支持你,要么就是项目真是太垃圾,这个钱远远大于人的年代,稍微靠谱点的项目都会有人支持你了,你拿不到资金,只能说明前面两个问题。   这里到是可以着重强调下,幸存者定律。   我感觉我们国人的思维逻辑,都被我们小时候的议论文给害了,形成了极为煞笔的推导逻辑。   二次世界大战时,美英联军对德国展开了战略大轰炸。由于德国防空力量强大,美英空军损失惨重,国防部找来飞机专家,要求研究战斗机受损情况,对飞机进行改进。专家们检查了执行任务归来的飞机,发现所有飞机的机腹都伤痕累累,于是专家们建议,机腹非常容易受到防空炮火攻击,应该加强机腹的防护。   最后国防部的改进要求却是,改进和加强对机翼的防护。因为国防部的一个统计学家发现,能够幸运返航的飞机,机翼都完好无损,这说明,被击中机翼的飞机都坠落了,而仅仅被击中机腹的飞机都返航了,应该加强防护的是机翼,而不是机腹。统计学里将这类因结果导致错误认知的情况,称为 “幸存者偏差”。   这种偏差其实无处不见,很多专家都跟我说,这几年他的预测都准了之类的话,我说都扯淡呢,那是因为你把不准的都给主动屏蔽了,感觉只留好的。电视上说,一个老人保持健康的原因是因为每天早起,早睡,锻炼身体,等等,那是因为他们主动把那些一样早起早睡,锻炼身体的却很早死了的老人给主动屏蔽了。   我们说一个人成功是因为勤奋,努力,那是因为他们把很多努力勤奋的失败者给忽略了。这种偏差必须被清醒的认识到,否则很容易被陷入自我催眠的行为之中,你觉得你不成功,那是因为你还不够努力,还不够勤奋,你炒股赚钱不多,那是因为你还不够专业,不够努力等等诸如此类的事情。相关的主题文章:

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